Huang Shujin,Zhang Ling,Mo Qiqing,Zhu Xiaoqian,He Huiming,Bai Xinyu,Ma Zhenyu,Seasonal variation and trend forecast of the number of inpatientsin a psychiatric hospital in Guangxi from 2008 to 2018[J].SICHUAN MENTAL HEALTH,2019,32(6):531-535

Seasonal variation and trend forecast of the number of inpatientsin a psychiatric hospital in Guangxi from 2008 to 2018

DOI：10.11886/scjsws20190628001

English keywords:Number of admissions Seasonal index Mental disorders Gray model Trend prediction

Fund projects:广西自然科学基金项目 2014GXNSFBA118163 ; 广西研究生教育创新计划项目 YCSW2019100 广西自然科学基金项目（2014GXNSFBA118163）；广西研究生教育创新计划项目（YCSW2019100）

Author Name	Affiliation
Huang Shujin	School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China Nanning Fifth People's Hospital, Nanning 530001, China
Zhang Ling	Nanning Fifth People's Hospital, Nanning 530001, China
Mo Qiqing	School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
Zhu Xiaoqian	Nanning Fifth People's Hospital, Nanning 530001, China
He Huiming	School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
Bai Xinyu	School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
Ma Zhenyu	School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China

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English abstract:

Objective To analyze the seasonal variation of the number of inpatients with mental disorders in a psychiatric hospital in Guangxi, to predict the number of hospitalized from 2019 to 2021, and to provide references for optimizing hospital management and resource allocation. Methods The number of inpatients each month from 2008 to 2018 in a psychiatric hospital of Guangxi was calculated. The seasonal index method was used to dynamically analyze monthly (quarterly) variation during the 11 years. The gray model was used to predict the number of hospitalized patients from 2019 to 2021. Results The seasonal indexes of February, March, April, May, October and December were 100.53%, 115.86%, 106.76%, 102.58%, 100.93% and 100.43%, respectively, which were all more than 100%. Based on the gray prediction model, the hospital admissions from 2019 to 2021 were predicted to be 6 878, 7 476 and 8 125, respectively. Conclusion From 2012 to 2021, the annual admission of patients with mental disorders in this hospital showed an increasing trend year by year. In the first half of the year, especially in spring reaching the peak of admission.

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